Regional Victoria left out of Plan Victoria 2050

The following is a joint statement from several Committees for Cities, including Committee for Echuca Moama, responding to the Plan Victoria 2025 report which we believe has missed an opportunity to grow regional Victoria at the expense of turning Melbourne into a megacity.

The Committees for Cities and Regions – Victoria is a network of independent, like-minded organisations, each operating within their particular city or regional area, to enhance their economic, social, cultural and environment development.

As Victoria looks to develop a new Plan for Victoria to 2051, it is now more than ever that we need a diverse, impartial, long-term, cross-sector view of the state’s future needs. The Committees of Cities and Regions – Victoria stand ready to collaborate with governments, community and the private sector to ensure Plan for Victoria truly represents the best interests of all Victorians.

Plan Victoria with its current projections for growth, demonstrates an absence of ambition for regional Victoria.

By 2051, the Plan estimates a population in excess of 10 million people with 8 – 8.5 million living in Melbourne. This represents a distribution of 80-85% of the state’s population and, by definition, Melbourne a megacity. This will mean Melbourne carries more of a population burden than any time in its history and all the complexity that comes with it. As a megacity, Melbourne will inevitably become a more crowded, more congested and less desirable city to live in.

The Committees for Cities and Regions – Victoria proposes a more equitable and fairer balance for population growth across the entire state. We propose that regional Victoria, its cities, regional towns and rural communities can carry more of the projected population growth with appropriate investment in all that goes into building connected, well-serviced, great communities.

As Victoria grows, we need to invest in the regions and manage bolder population growth, or witness their inevitable decline. Decline is not a scenario we are prepared to accept.

The regions are not homogenous, but each is an “Engine Room” for economic development in its own right. They are ‘intentional places’ for investment and the Plan does not fully explore the opportunities for growth nor development in the regions and the significant benefit to the overall State as a result. What is good for regional Victoria is good for Melbourne and good for the state of Victoria.

The Plan does not challenge the fundamental question of the state’s overall population distribution. Rather, it articulates a presumption that we are on a pathway to Melbourne, in its established areas and growth areas, with a population at 8.5m. Such a presumption does not give due credit to the role regional Victoria can play in our overall economic, social and environmental prosperity.

We believe the Plan requires a re-think of the state’s population distribution and a more robust assessment of what the state could look like with a Vision that saw 30-40% of the state’s population living in regional cities, towns and rural communities.

As the mainland state with Australia’s smallest geographical footprint and a population of over 10m by 2050, we believe Victoria has an opportunity to disperse its population more broadly. In doing so, we will minimise the challenges in servicing the demands of a megacity and maximise opportunities for regional Victoria, creating a more sustainable, liveable and vibrant ‘whole of state’ for all Victorians.

Plan for Victoria’s population growth projections:

	2021	2051	Increase
Victoria	6.5 m	10.3 m	3.8 m
Metro Melbourne	4.9 m	8.0 m	3.1 m
Regional Victoria	1.6 m	2.3 m	700 k

Victoria’s Housing Statement projects the number of dwellings as follows:

	2021	2051	Increase
Combined Melbourne	2.130m	3.970 m	1.84m
Established Melbourne	1.8 m	3.2 m	1.4 m
Melb Growth Areas	330k	770 k	440 k)
Regional Victoria	800 k	1.225 m	425 k

Regional Victoria has seen a surge in regional migration since COVID and shows no signs of slowing. In the twelve months to March 2024, more people headed to the regions in Victoria than to Melbourne.

The Regional Australia Institute’s Regional Movers Index (RMI) focuses on migration from capital cities to regions and between capital cities and regions. The RMI is updated every quarter and continues to show the regions are growing, confirming there continues to be an appetite for region living.

In the quarter ending March 2024, 30% of Victoria’s net outflows vacated Melbourne and settled in a regional area. The Shire of Moorabool captured 5.4% of the total inflows and Greater Geelong captured a further 4.6%. Both LGAs feature in the Top Five LGAs in the country for inflow migration. Ballarat and Geelong have featured in the Top Ten LGAs nationally every quarter since 2020.

For many, the appeal of urban living and a city lifestyle have become difficult to access in Melbourne due to the spreading nature of the growing megacity and the difficulties of commuting from the suburbs to the activities of the central business and entertainment districts.

Further, Australian workers and employers have embraced Working At Home (WAH) as they seek to improve their quality of life and reduce time commuting. Demographer Bernard Salt proposes that approximately 10% of the 1.4 million workers will continue to predominantly WAH. This means regional areas will continue to be an attractive option, especially for millennials who are looking for affordable housing and choice. ABS data supports this contention with a regional skew in the 25-49 year demographic in the next 10 years.

“The new regional Super-Consumer is a millennial in their early 40s redefining how to deliver workplace

value from the idyllic confines of Australia’s near regions.” Bernard Salt, August 2024.

Plan Victoria has a Vision for “the kind of Victoria we want: happy and healthy, connected, affordable,

sustainable, thriving, liveable and fair” The Hon. Sonia Kilkenny, December 2023.

The Committees for Cities and Regions – Victoria proposes that without a re-think of the state’s population

distribution, the Vision as articulated by Minister Kilkenny is not achievable.

It is time we changed course. Victoria needs a population plan that incorporates greater regionalisation with larger, well connected, fully serviced regional cities, towns and communities, to achieve a fairer and more equitable balance for all Victorians.

Michael Poulton Committee for Ballarat

on behalf of

Committee for Cities and Regions – Victoria

including Geelong, Greater Shepparton, Echuca Moama, Portland and Gippsland.